Estimating oil and gas reserves is a tricky – and important – matter for energy companies. The quantity of reserves directly correlates to the company’s market value, and accurate production forecasts relate to its stock market price. Estimated ultimate reserves (EUR) are mathematically calculated from each well’s historical production curve and anticipated future production. The project called on us to dynamically calculate EUR and improve the accuracy of oil and gas production for over 100,000 wells in key shale fields such as Eagle Ford, Haynesville, and Permian. This system improved the production forecasts for E&P operators while simultaneously identifying errors, new discoveries, as well as fading wells.



SafeRock delivered an automated system which combined anomaly detection and well productivity decline curves, improved EUR estimates, and generated type curves for each geographic region. Our system aimed to increase the accuracy of new well EURs (which impacts company value) and simultaneously improve the accuracy of quarterly production forecasts (which impacts stock market price).



SafeRock’s system greatly improved the accuracy in 1, 2, and 6 month forecasts. Our estimates were more accurate than the predictions of Wall Street experts for 74% of the wells.


Technical Resources

DevSecOps, MLOps, AI/ML, supervised reporting, Statistics SMEs, Shale and Geology SMEs, Agile process, AWS with relational database, SafeRock’s TOROS solution, Python, R and Shiny.

Project Details

Client: Oil & Gas Supplier

Focus: Estimating oil and gas reserves